TradingSystem
live

Fundamentals & analyst consensus come from Yahoo (cached 12h); news is live. Research tool — analyst targets are third-party opinions, not advice.

Horizon
Day tradeSwingLong term
Max drawdown
2%15%40%
Target return /mo
0.25%2%10%

📱 Phone alerts (Android / ntfy)

loading…

Account

Install the free ntfy app from Google Play → Subscribe to the topic above. On Samsung: ntfy settings → Instant delivery, and Android Settings → Apps → ntfy → Battery → Unrestricted (One UI otherwise delays pushes). The watcher scans day + swing signals and pushes only NEW walk-forward-validated entries with entry/stop/target/leverage.

Every position here survived walk-forward out-of-sample validation with the parameters chosen in the most recent window — in-sample-only winners never appear. Sizing: OOS-Sharpe ÷ volatility, max 25% each; the remainder stays cash. Click a row's Chart button to see that strategy's entries on the candles. Snapshots saved daily to reports/. Research tool — not financial advice; leverage suggestions respect ESMA retail caps but margin calls are not simulated.

Simulated account — live track record

The account auto-executes the advised swing portfolio every watcher cycle (15 min default): fills at the latest price, logs slippage vs the advised entry, exits on stop / target / time. Every night at 23:15 the learning job re-fits all walk-forward parameters on data including today, recalibrates cost assumptions from measured slippage, and quarantines any strategy whose live expectancy turns negative (see the nightly push report). Overnight/CFD fees are not simulated yet. Virtual money — the point is an auditable track record and the live-vs-backtest gap.

How to use this app — the investor's manual

Everything below assumes one goal: grow capital with validated edges while risking a drawdown you chose in advance. The app is built to be honest before it is optimistic.

0 · Honest expectations first

The validated strategies here historically produce out-of-sample Sharpe ratios around 0.5–1.2 — that means realistic expectations of roughly 0.5–2% per month at moderate risk, with losing weeks and losing months along the way. Anything promising much more is either leverage (which multiplies losses identically) or overfitting. "Easily" in trading means: the process is easy to follow — the returns still require patience and discipline.

1 · Your 5-minute daily routine

  1. Phone: any push notifications overnight? Each one is a NEW validated entry with entry / stop / target / leverage. FOMC warnings mean: reduce size.
  2. Portfolio tab: set your three sliders (horizon, max drawdown, target return) → Build today's portfolio. Read the verdict banner: if it says your return target is not achievable at your risk level, believe it — do not chase.
  3. Check the NEW badges: those are today's actionable entries. Click Chart on any row to inspect the setup on the candles before acting.
  4. Paper Trading tab: is the simulated account tracking what the advice claimed? Watch the live win rate and the slippage number — that is the reality gap.
  5. Every morning the nightly learning report (push) tells you what re-fit, what got quarantined, and that today's portfolios are ready.

2 · Chart & Levels — see the setup

Pick a market in the top bar (categories: indices, stocks, ETFs, commodities, forex, crypto, eToro tradeable prices, your local CSVs). The chart auto-detects and draws:

  • S/R zones (dashed horizontal pairs): pivot clusters; label S×7 = support touched 7 times. Round-number zones rank higher (that's where real orders cluster — the only pattern effect with Grade-A evidence).
  • Trendlines & channels (solid diagonals + dashed parallels): oblique support/ resistance fitted through pivots. Toggle Log scale and they re-fit in log geometry — essential for crypto and multi-year charts.
  • Unfilled gaps (orange dotted): open gaps that never filled — price magnets/hurdles.
  • Pattern callouts (toolbar text): wedges/triangles with apex distance, and head-&-shoulders with neckline + measured target when present.
  • Signals dropdown: overlay any strategy's L/S/x arrows on the candles.

Intervals: Daily for swing/long-term; 30m/15m for day-trading (≈1 month of history); Hourly in between; Weekly for the big picture.

3 · Backtest — the first filter, never the proof

Pick a strategy, tweak parameters (hover a field to see the walk-forward grid), choose leverage (1×/2×/5×) and costs, and run. You get equity vs buy-and-hold, metric tiles, and the trade list. Then press Validate (luck test):

  • Sharpe 90% CI — if the interval includes zero, the edge may not exist.
  • Permutation p-value — would random timing with the same exposure do as well? p < 0.05 = the timing itself carries information.

Rule: a good-looking backtest that fails validation is a coincidence, not a strategy.

4 · Walk-Forward — the honest test

Optimizes on a training window, trades the NEXT window blind, slides, repeats — simulating how you would actually have traded. Read three numbers per row:

  • OOS Sharpe — quality of returns the optimizer never saw. ≥ 0.5 is respectable.
  • WF eff — out-of-sample ÷ in-sample. Near 1 = robust; under 0.5 = overfit.
  • Param stability — same parameters chosen across windows? Low stability = the grid is fitting noise even if returns look fine.

Click a row for the stitched OOS equity curve and per-window parameter choices. The weekly Saturday sweep (≈1.4 million backtests) does this across every strategy × symbol × 9 window schemes and judges each strategy by its median — never its best cell.

5 · eToro Assets — trade what you can actually trade

Search all ~15,000 eToro instruments, see leverage tiers and per-class fees (ESMA retail caps), and chart any of them on eToro's own price feed (ETORO:GOLD etc. also work in Backtest and Walk-Forward). Key rule: ×1 long stocks/ETFs/crypto = real asset, no overnight fee; any leverage or short = CFD with nightly fees (×3 on weekends) — that cost is real for multi-day holds. Crypto on eToro costs ~1% per side: set fee accordingly before believing a crypto backtest.

6 · Portfolio — the advised book, your three dials

  • Horizon: Day (intraday, flat by the close) · Swing (1–15 days) · Long term (trend/seasonal, weeks–months).
  • Max drawdown: your pain threshold. The book is scaled DOWN until its estimated drawdown fits — this cap always wins.
  • Target return /mo: a goal-check, not a promise. If validated edges can't reach it at your risk cap, the verdict says so instead of levering up.

Every position passed walk-forward validation (OOS Sharpe ≥ 0.3, recent-window parameters), is sized by edge ÷ volatility (max 25%), and shows entry/stop/target, suggested leverage (auto-capped to 1× near FOMC), and stability. The unused remainder stays in cash — cash is a position. Snapshots are saved to reports/ daily, so the advice is auditable.

7 · Paper Trading — the track record that keeps everyone honest

A virtual $100k account auto-executes the advised swing portfolio every 15 minutes: real fills at current prices, logged slippage vs the advised entry, exits on stop/target/time. This produces the two numbers that matter more than any backtest: live win rate and live-vs-backtest gap. Give it 4–8 weeks before drawing conclusions — 10 trades mean nothing, 100 start to.

8 · Phone alerts — signals wherever you are

Install ntfy (Google Play, free) → Subscribe to the topic shown in the Portfolio tab. Samsung: enable Instant delivery in ntfy + set Battery to Unrestricted, or pushes arrive late. You'll receive: new validated entries (with all trade details), FOMC warnings, and the nightly learning report.

9 · How the system improves itself every day

  • 23:15 nightly: re-fits every strategy's parameters on data including today; recalibrates cost assumptions from measured paper slippage (floored — it can learn costs UP toward reality, never down into fantasy); quarantines any strategy whose live expectancy goes negative on 10+ trades — live evidence outranks backtests.
  • Saturday weekly: the full robustness sweep re-judges every strategy across all markets and window schemes by median performance.
  • What it deliberately does NOT do: invent new strategies overnight, chase the best cell of a big grid, or raise leverage to hit your return target. Self-improvement here means self-correction from evidence.

10 · Glossary (30 seconds)

Sharpe: return per unit of risk; >1 is very good after costs. Drawdown: worst peak-to-valley loss — the number that makes people quit. OOS (out-of-sample): performance on data the optimizer never saw — the only kind that counts. WF efficiency: how much of the in-sample edge survives OOS. Expectancy: average %-gain per trade. CFD: a derivative position with financing costs — what leverage/shorts are on eToro. Quarantine: strategy suspended for losing real (paper) money despite good backtests.

11½ · Using it on your phone

The server listens on your home network. On your phone (same Wi-Fi), open Chrome → http://<your-Mac's-IP>:8642. Then Chrome menu → Add to Home screen — you get an app icon that opens full-screen. The whole UI is responsive: swipe the tab bar, all tables scroll. Away from home Wi-Fi the page won't load (the server is local) — but phone push alerts still arrive anywhere, because ntfy is cloud-delivered. For full remote access from anywhere, install Tailscale on Mac + phone (free, encrypted) and use the Mac's Tailscale IP.

12 · Inviting friends (and if you ARE the friend — start here)

Owner's part: go to login.tailscale.com/admin/machines → row "macbook-pro-di-matteo" → ⋯ → Share → copy the link. Send the friend that share link + the invite code (the owner sees the current code in the Portfolio tab → Account panel).

The friend's list:

  1. Create a free account at tailscale.com (Google login works), then open the share link you received and accept it.
  2. Install the Tailscale app (Google Play / App Store / Mac) and log in — leave it switched ON.
  3. Open Chrome and go to: http://100.107.141.114:8642
  4. Tap Create account → choose your username and password (8+ characters) → enter the invite code you were given.
  5. Android: Chrome menu ⋮ → Add to Home screen → it becomes an app icon.
  6. Optional but recommended — real-time signals on your phone: install the free ntfy app, open the trading app → Portfolio tab → your personal alert topic is shown there → subscribe to it in ntfy. On Samsung: ntfy settings → Instant delivery, and Battery → Unrestricted.
  7. Read this Guide top to bottom — especially section 0 ("Honest expectations") and section 11 ("What this app is NOT").

Every account gets its own private paper-trading account, own alert topic and own settings — nobody can touch anybody else's. Heavy compute (the weekly million-backtest sweep) stays owner-only.

11 · What this app is NOT (read once, remember forever)

It does not place real orders (yet) — you execute manually on eToro. It does not model margin calls at 2×/5×, or CFD overnight fees in backtests. It cannot remove market risk: validated edges lose money on many individual days. Nothing here is financial advice — it is a research instrument that enforces discipline you would otherwise need willpower for.